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Recovery Expectations

Expectations are high that we will see real economic growth this year, solidly over 3 percent growth. I’m in that camp. It will be great if it happens and there are a lot of really good signs.

While we are not Japan, we have to keep in mind how things played out there. We had a bubble burst and so did they. Their bubble burst in 1990. Ours in 2008. While we are different, there is strong evidence that it takes a lot of time to really work off the excesses created in a bubble. Japan seems to be recovering for real. Finally. We may be starting to, but I’m keeping my expectations in check. It seems more likely that even with a solid year this year we would still need a lot more time to really work off the excess.

Maybe longer periods of slow growth like the last couple of years with occasional periods that ramp up a little more. That would be pretty good.


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